As the calendar flips to October 2, 2026, the NFL season is in full swing, and Week 4 promises plenty of excitement for bettors and fans alike. The weekend kicked off with the Cleveland Browns edging the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-24 on Thursday night, setting the stage for a loaded slate. According to insights gathered by Vulius Sports, our team of handicapping experts—Michael Fiddle, Matt Jacob, Jeremy Pond, and Matt Russell—has combed through the matchups to deliver their best bets. From player props to team spreads, here’s where the smart money is heading.
Colts vs. Commanders: Josh Downs Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
In a clash set for London, the Indianapolis Colts (-4, 48.5) face the Washington Commanders, and Vulius analysts see a clear opportunity in the passing game. Michael Fiddle notes that the market has been moving on Josh Downs’ receiving yards prop, with opening lines at 63.5 climbing to 65.5. At BetMGM, the over 60.5 at -115 offers a 1.5% edge compared to a de-vigged consensus. The matchup further supports the play: Washington allows the second-most passing yards in the league, and Downs leads the Colts with 24 targets, ranking 15th in the NFL. With top wideout Alec Pierce on IR, Downs has seen 20 of those targets in the last two weeks. Expect his volume to remain high against a porous Commanders defense.
Packers at Buccaneers: Matthew Golden’s Breakout Continues
Green Bay’s offense has found a bright spot in second-year receiver Matthew Golden. The former Texas Longhorn has exploded in 2026, hauling in 15 catches on 30 targets for 253 yards and a score through three games. His 100-yard, one-touchdown performance in Week 3 against Atlanta was a season-best. Now, with Jayden Reed lost for the season due to neck surgery, Golden’s role will only grow. Jeremy Pond is banking on another big day for Golden, who ranks seventh in targets and ninth in receiving yards. Pond recommends a ladder play: 60+ yards (-104), 70+ (+146), 80+ (+210) at FanDuel, plus anytime touchdown (+215 at Caesars). The Buccaneers rank 23rd in team defense, so the matchup is ripe for a Golden explosion.
Patriots at Bills: Josh Allen Over 31.5 Rushing Yards
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been a touchdown machine on the ground, tied for the league lead with six rushing scores through three weeks. However, his yardage totals have been modest, save for a 69-yard effort in Week 2. Matt Jacob expects Allen to break loose against a middling New England run defense that allows 108.3 yards per game and 4.33 yards per carry. The Patriots have faced immobile quarterbacks like Drew Lock and Aaron Rodgers, but Allen’s dual-threat ability is a different beast. Last season, Allen torched New England for 101 yards on 20 carries across two games. Jacob is confident the 2024 NFL MVP will gallop past 31.5 rushing yards.
Cowboys at Texans: Houston -3 (-110 at BetMGM)
The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a long trip to Brazil and now must travel to Houston to face the Texans. Matt Russell points out that teams returning from international play have historically struggled, as evidenced by the Packers and Eagles in 2024. Dallas’ defense ranks 30th in EPA/Play and dead last against the run, which should open things up for Houston’s offense, especially with Nico Collins back. The Texans’ defense has stabilized since a rough Week 1 against Josh Allen, and after tormenting Joe Burrow in Week 2, they should contain Dak Prescott. With the spread moving from -2.5 to -3, Russell advises laying the field goal with Houston, who are desperate to avoid an 0-4 start.
Chiefs at Raiders: Brock Bowers Anytime TD (+187 at Caesars)
Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers made a splash in his season debut, catching 10 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown against New Orleans, earning AFC Week 3 Offensive Player of the Week honors. Now, he faces a Kansas City Chiefs defense that has struggled against tight ends, allowing scores to Denver’s Evan Engram and Indianapolis’ Tyler Warren. Jeremy Pond believes Bowers is on another level when healthy and expects him to find the end zone again. With head coach Klint Kubiak favoring heavy usage (79% snap share, team-high 33 routes), Bowers is a prime red-zone threat. The Chiefs may be 3-0, but their tight end coverage is vulnerable.
Broncos at 49ers: San Francisco -0.5 First Half
The San Francisco 49ers are battered, with 14 players on injured reserve and key defenders Nick Bosa and James Thompson ruled out. Yet, as Matt Jacob notes, they’ve led at halftime in all three games. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos have scored just 10 first-half points all season, with their output declining weekly. Jacob is confident the 49ers will continue their first-half dominance, making -0.5 a safe bet. The Broncos’ slow starts are a trend worth exploiting.
Lions at Panthers: Darren Waller Over 2.5 Receptions (-130) and Anytime TD (+260)
Carolina Panthers tight end Darren Waller, who retired in 2024, is enjoying a renaissance. He’s seen his target share increase each week, culminating in eight targets for 51 yards in Week 3. Now, he faces a Detroit Lions defense that has allowed the most receptions (29), yards (351), and touchdowns (six) to tight ends. With wide receiver Jalen Coker banged up, Jeremy Pond expects Waller to be heavily involved. He’s backing Waller to exceed 2.5 receptions and 23.5 receiving yards, plus a sprinkle on him scoring at +260.
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