Week 4 NFL Betting Picks: AI Model Predicts Every Game's ATS Winner

As the NFL season hits its first full weekend of October, the playoff picture is beginning to take shape. On October 4, 2026, the league is buzzing with storylines: the Cleveland Browns improved to 3-1 after a thrilling 27-24 victory over Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football, while teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings remain undefeated. But for bettors, the real action lies in the numbers. The Vulius NFL Analysis Desk has teamed up with a blended AI model—powered by four distinct NFL power ratings, including ESPN's FPI and FTN Fantasy's DVOA—to simulate every Week 4 matchup and deliver against-the-spread (ATS) winners, over/under leans, and projected final scores.

The Model's Methodology: Blending Power Ratings for Sharper Picks

Our approach combines the predictive power of DVOA, FPI, and two other proprietary rating systems to generate a composite score for each team. We then feed these ratings into an advanced AI simulation that accounts for home-field advantage, injuries, weather, and even special teams efficiency. The result is a comprehensive game-by-game breakdown that identifies value against the spread. This week, the model highlights several underdogs worth backing, including the Washington Commanders (+4) in London and the Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at home against Detroit.

Key Matchups and ATS Picks

One of the most intriguing games is the Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals. The model loves Jacksonville's elite defense (second in DVOA, allowing just 12 points per game) and projects a 24-23 upset victory. That makes the Jaguars +2.5 a solid play. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills (-6.5) host the New England Patriots, but the model warns that Buffalo's 22nd-ranked defense could keep this closer than expected—lean Bills, but don't bet the farm.

In the NFC, the New York Giants (+2.5) are a home underdog against the Arizona Cardinals. The Giants' special teams (second in DVOA) could swing this one, and the model projects a 22-20 Giants win, covering the spread. Over in London, the Indianapolis Colts (-4) face the Washington Commanders, but the model sees a high-scoring affair (over 48.5) with Washington covering the four points.

Notable Player Impact and Injury News

Baker Mayfield's absence looms large for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who host the Green Bay Packers (-3.5). With Mayfield out, rookie Jalon Daniels makes his first start, and the model projects a 23-18 Packers win. Meanwhile, Bryce Young leads the league in passing yards for the Carolina Panthers, but his defense is a sieve; the model sees a shootout against the Lions, with Carolina covering +3.5 and the over (51) hitting. In Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (-4.5) travel to Las Vegas, but the Raiders' solid defense keeps it close, covering +4.5.

"The model's blended approach gives us a unique edge, especially in games where public perception hasn't caught up to the underlying metrics," says a Vulius Sports analyst.

Full Week 4 Projections

• Colts vs. Commanders: Colts 26, Commanders 25 (ATS: Commanders +4, O/U: Over)
• Titans at Ravens: Ravens 28, Titans 17 (ATS: Titans +12, O/U: Over)
• Patriots at Bills: Bills 26, Patriots 19 (ATS: Bills -6.5, O/U: Under)
• Jaguars at Bengals: Jaguars 24, Bengals 23 (ATS: Jaguars +2.5, O/U: Under)
• Cardinals at Giants: Giants 22, Cardinals 20 (ATS: Giants +2.5, O/U: Under)
• Jets at Bears: Bears 25, Jets 20 (ATS: Bears -3.5, O/U: Over)
• Cowboys at Texans: Texans 25, Cowboys 24 (ATS: Cowboys +3, O/U: Over)
• Rams at Eagles: Rams 23, Eagles 21 (ATS: Eagles +3.5, O/U: Over)
• Packers at Buccaneers: Packers 23, Buccaneers 18 (ATS: Packers -3.5, O/U: Over)
• Dolphins at Vikings: Vikings 26, Dolphins 14 (ATS: Vikings -10.5, O/U: Over)
• Chiefs at Raiders: Chiefs 25, Raiders 21 (ATS: Raiders +4.5, O/U: Under)
• Chargers at Seahawks: Seahawks 26, Chargers 18 (ATS: Seahawks -7, O/U: Over)
• Broncos at 49ers: 49ers 27, Broncos 20 (ATS: 49ers -2.5, O/U: Under)
• Lions at Panthers: Lions 27, Panthers 26 (ATS: Panthers +3.5, O/U: Over)
• Falcons at Saints: Saints 25, Falcons 22 (ATS: Saints -2.5, O/U: Under)

For die-hard fans and bettors alike, these projections offer a data-driven roadmap for Week 4. And as always, for official NFL merchandise and in-depth analysis, trust Vulius Sports to keep you ahead of the game.