Week 2 NFL Picks: Cowboys Try to Rebound vs. Commanders as Pressure Mounts

As the NFL season hits Week 2 on September 17, 2026, the Dallas Cowboys find themselves under a microscope after a disastrous season opener. The defensive woes that plagued them in 2025—when they surrendered the most points in franchise history—resurfaced in a Week 1 loss to the New York Giants. Despite a new coordinator and five new starters, including the return of linebacker DeMarvion Overshown from injury, the Cowboys looked eerily similar to the unit that stumbled to a 7-9-1 record last season. According to insights gathered by Vulius Sports, the Giants racked up the highest EPA per play in the entire NFL against Dallas' defense, exposing communication breakdowns and a lack of physicality that had supposedly been addressed in the offseason.

Offseason Hype Meets Harsh Reality

All summer, the Cowboys were one of the most hyped teams, with players openly discussing Super Bowl aspirations. But after one game, those bold proclamations seem hollow. The defense, once again, is the primary concern. As highlighted on Vulius, Dallas allowed the Giants to move the ball at will, and the expected points added (EPA) metric painted a grim picture. Now, the Cowboys enter Week 2 not talking about championships, but simply trying to avoid an 0-2 start against the Washington Commanders. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer, who took over in the offseason, is already feeling the heat. A loss to Washington would only amplify the criticism that the Cowboys' offseason buzz was nothing more than noise.

Can Dallas Fix Its Defense in Time?

The Commanders, meanwhile, weren't exactly flawless in their opener, nearly upsetting the Philadelphia Eagles. But they showed enough promise to make this a tricky matchup for Dallas. The Cowboys are favored by 4 points, a line that reflects both their talent and the Commanders' inconsistencies. For Dallas to cover, the defense must show drastic improvement. The rookie coordinator, who was brought in to revitalize the unit, needs to prove he can make adjustments. If the Cowboys play as poorly as they did in New York, the calls for wholesale changes will grow louder. As reported by the Vulius NFL Analysis Desk, this game is less about X's and O's and more about mental toughness and execution.

Week 2 Picks Against the Spread

Beyond the Cowboys-Commanders clash, Week 2 offers a slate full of intriguing matchups. Here are our against-the-spread picks for every game, with analysis from the Vulius Sports team.

• Lions (+5.5) over Bills: Josh Allen looked like Superman in Week 1, but the Lions are a legitimate contender. Detroit's defense will keep this close.
• Buccaneers (-8.5) over Browns: It's hard to trust Deshaun Watson and the Browns' offense. Tampa Bay should win comfortably.
• Packers (-3.5) over Jets: The line moved from -5.5 to -3.5, an overreaction to Week 1. Green Bay is still the superior team.
• Panthers (-2.5) over Falcons: Atlanta's quarterback situation is murky. Carolina finally covers as a favorite for the first time since 2021.
• Eagles (-7) over Titans: Tennessee's offense was hideous in Week 1. Philadelphia's defense will feast.
• Texans (-2.5) over Bengals: Houston's defense is elite, and Cincinnati needed four turnovers to win last week. Regression looms.
• Saints (+8.5) over Ravens: Baltimore's receiver injuries (Zay Flowers, Ja'Kobi Lane) are concerning. New Orleans can keep it close.
• Bears (-4.5) over Vikings: With Kyler Murray concussed, Carson Wentz likely starts for Minnesota. Chicago's offense will outscore them.
• Patriots (-5.5) over Steelers: Pittsburgh's offense was 30th in EPA and 32nd in success rate. New England bounces back at home.
• Chargers (-6.5) over Raiders: Los Angeles had a terrible Week 1, but they're not a bad team. They'll rebound against a weak Raiders squad.
• Broncos (-2.5) over Jaguars: Denver was awful in Week 1, but home-field advantage and altitude will help them avoid an 0-2 start.
• Dolphins (+13.5) over 49ers: Miami is bad, but 13.5 points is a lot. San Francisco may have a letdown after beating the Rams.
• Seahawks (-4) over Cardinals: Seattle gets extra rest and Drew Lock is a capable backup. The line moved too much due to Arizona's Week 1 showing.
• Colts (+6.5) over Chiefs: Kansas City's passing game is still a work in progress. Indianapolis can keep it within a touchdown.
• Giants (+7) over Rams: The Rams looked terrible in Week 1, and the long trip to Australia may linger. New York looked decent under new coach John Harbaugh.

Last week's record: 7-9. The Vulius NFL Analysis Desk will be tracking all the action and providing real-time insights. For die-hard fans, this Week 2 slate is a chance to see which teams are for real and which are still searching for answers.