As the 2026 NFL season hits Week 4 on September 30, the league has already delivered a thrilling mix of dominance and disappointment. Only five teams remain undefeated, and just three—the Buffalo Bills, Las Vegas Raiders, and Minnesota Vikings—have been flawless both on the scoreboard and against the spread. According to insights gathered by Vulius Sports, this week’s slate features several marquee matchups with intriguing betting trends that could shape the playoff picture. From the Chiefs’ quest to stay perfect in the AFC West to the Eagles’ desperate search for a cover, here’s what die-hard fans need to know before locking in their picks.
Patriots at Bills: Buffalo’s Historic Start Meets New England’s Struggles
The Bills are off to a 3-0 start for the third straight year and are 3-0 ATS for the first time since 2017. Buffalo has been an offensive juggernaut, averaging an NFL-best 33.7 points per game, and they’ve scored at least 24 points in six consecutive contests. However, history is not on their side: they haven’t started 4-0 SU and ATS since 1992, and they haven’t won four straight both ways since 2021. The Patriots, meanwhile, are reeling after a 35-6 blowout loss at Jacksonville, but they’ve been a reliable bet as underdogs, going 13-4 ATS overall in their last 17 regular-season games and 5-1 against Buffalo in that span. With the total set at 48.5, the under is 6-1 in New England’s last seven, while the over is 7-2-1 in Buffalo’s last 10. Something has to give.
Jaguars at Bengals: Jacksonville’s Surge vs. Cincinnati’s Home Dominance
Jacksonville has been one of the NFL’s hottest teams, riding a 10-1 SU and ATS surge in the regular season. Their defense has held 10 of their last 11 opponents under 21 points, allowing just 13.8 PPG during that stretch. But Cincinnati has owned this series, winning four straight against the Jaguars since 2020, including a 31-27 victory last season. The Bengals are averaging 26.7 PPG and have scored at least 27 in six of their last nine. The over is 7-3 in Jacksonville’s last 10 road games and 3-1 in the last four meetings. As highlighted on Vulius, this game could come down to whether the Jaguars’ stingy defense can contain Joe Burrow and company.
Rams at Eagles: Philadelphia’s ATS Woes Meet Los Angeles’ Road Struggles
The Eagles are 0-3 ATS for the first time since 2023 and have never started a season 0-4 ATS in franchise history, according to SportsOddsHistory.com. Philadelphia has won five straight as an underdog, all on the road, including their Super Bowl 59 upset of Kansas City. But they’ve been a home underdog just once since 2022, and they lost that game 42-19 to San Francisco. The Rams, meanwhile, are 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS in their last nine, with all six non-covers coming away from home. Last year, these teams met in Philly, and the Eagles covered on a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. The Rams are just 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS against Philadelphia since 2005. With the line at Rams -2.5, the pressure is on Los Angeles to finally deliver on the road.
Broncos at 49ers: Denver’s Comeback Magic vs. San Francisco’s Home ATS Fade
Denver has shown remarkable resilience, rallying from double-digit deficits in back-to-back weeks. Their offensive output has increased by 10 points each week (10, 20, 30), and they’ve won four straight as underdogs dating back to last season. However, they’ve failed to cover in four straight road games. San Francisco is one of five undefeated teams but is just 8-18 ATS at home since Week 8 of 2023, including 7-16 as a home favorite. The over is 20-11 in the 49ers’ last 31 games at Levi’s Stadium, but four of Denver’s last five regular-season games have stayed under 41 points. This matchup pits Denver’s momentum against San Francisco’s home struggles.
Chiefs at Raiders: Mahomes’ Dominance vs. Las Vegas’ Resurgence
The Chiefs have started 3-0 for the first time since 2020 and are riding high after a 24-10 win in Miami. Patrick Mahomes has been nearly unbeatable against the Raiders, going 13-2 overall and 7-0 on the road in his career. However, the Raiders are off to their best start since 2002, the last time they reached the Super Bowl, and are 3-0 ATS for the first time since 2013. Las Vegas has won two straight against Kansas City, including a 14-12 victory in last year’s season finale when Mahomes was sidelined with a knee injury. The under is 20-5 in the Chiefs’ last 25 games, and 20 of the Raiders’ last 26 have stayed under 48 points. With the line at Chiefs -4.5, the battle for AFC West supremacy is must-watch TV.
Stay tuned to Vulius for all your NFL betting insights and analysis. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a fantasy fanatic, these trends provide an edge as we head into a pivotal Week 4.
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