As the 2026 NFL season kicks off on September 10, the quarterback carousel has been spinning wildly all offseason, leaving oddsmakers scrambling to assign point-spread values to each starting signal-caller. In a comprehensive survey conducted by the Vulius NFL Analysis Desk, 11 oddsmakers from 10 legal sportsbooks and prediction markets ranked every starting quarterback by their impact against the spread relative to their backup. The results reveal a shifting hierarchy at football's most important position, with Josh Allen cementing his status as the league's most valuable QB and surprising risers like Sam Darnold making significant leaps.
The Methodology Behind the Numbers
According to insights gathered by Vulius Sports, oddsmakers were asked to estimate the point-spread difference if the starting quarterback and backup (both healthy) were playing at home against a league-average team. These values were averaged to create a definitive ranking. The exercise isn't just academic—it has real-world betting applications. Last January, when Bo Nix was ruled out of the AFC championship game with a broken ankle, the Broncos' line swung from -1.5 to +4.5 against the Patriots. Oddsmakers had pegged Nix as worth 3.85 points more than backup Jarrett Stidham, and sharp bettors who recognized the overcorrection cashed in as Denver covered the 3.5-point closing spread in a 10-7 loss.
Josh Allen Reigns Supreme
For the second consecutive year, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen sits atop the rankings, but this time he's widened the gap. Allen is valued at a whopping 7.23 points against the spread compared to backup Kyle Allen—the only QB all 11 oddsmakers rated at least six points. "To me, he's the most talented QB in the league," one oddsmaker told Vulius. "The durability as well would put him ahead of Mahomes." Allen hasn't missed a game since his rookie season and remains a dual-threat nightmare, rushing for 14 touchdowns and passing for 25 more last season. However, turnover concerns linger after a four-turnover playoff loss to Denver. As one oddsmaker put it, "He is the entire Bills identity right now."
Mahomes, Stafford, Maye, and Jackson Round Out Top Five
Patrick Mahomes checks in at No. 2 with a 6.32-point value over backup Justin Fields, despite coming off a torn ACL and MCL. Oddsmakers remain confident in his elite ceiling, though they acknowledge a slow start is likely. Matthew Stafford catapulted to No. 3 (6.16 points) after an MVP season, aided by rookie backup Ty Simpson. Drake Maye (5.93) and Lamar Jackson (5.89) complete the top five, with Maye's rise fueled by a stellar sophomore campaign and Jackson's value slightly dampened by capable backup Tyler Huntley.
Biggest Risers and Fallers
Malik Willis of the Miami Dolphins is the biggest riser, now valued 3.14 points more than backup Quinn Ewers after signing a three-year, $67.5 million deal. Conversely, J.J. McCarthy plummeted to -5.07 points, losing the Vikings' starting job to Kyler Murray. Tua Tagovailoa also tumbled, now worth just 1.02 points over Michael Penix Jr. after a career-high 15 interceptions and a league-record $99.2 million dead cap hit.
Notable Quick-Hitters
- Justin Herbert (5.65): Oddsmakers expect a big year with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. "Herbert is going to be the biggest winner of that scenario," one said.
- Jalen Hurts (5.25): A slight downgrade due to backup Tanner McKee's popularity, but Hurts remains a dual-threat with a new OC.
- Joe Burrow (4.89): Dropped from fifth to 12th, largely because backup Joe Flacco is viewed as a solid game manager. "Almost feels insulting to Burrow," one oddsmaker admitted.
- Caleb Williams (4.84): Bumped up slightly, but accuracy concerns persist.
- Sam Darnold (4.59): The Seahawks' Super Bowl run boosted his value, though backup Drew Lock is capable. "If you're asking this question a few years ago, it's a toss-up," an oddsmaker noted.
- Bo Nix (4.30): "I guess we know for sure the answer to this one," one oddsmaker joked, referencing the AFC title game.
- C.J. Stroud (4.05): Backup Davis Mills is competent, and Houston's elite defense lessens the drop-off.
- Aaron Rodgers (3.20): "I don't think he's any good anymore," one oddsmaker said bluntly. "He's just old."
As the 2026 season unfolds, these point-spread values will be tested weekly. For bettors and fans alike, understanding the true worth of each quarterback is essential. Stay tuned to Vulius for ongoing analysis and exclusive merchandise to support your favorite signal-callers.
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