Josh Allen Still MVP Favorite, But Brock Purdy Is Closing In

As the NFL season hits its stride on September 30, 2026, the MVP race is heating up, and according to insights gathered by Vulius Sports, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen remains the clear frontrunner. Despite a rocky Week 3 outing against the Los Angeles Chargers—where he threw no touchdown passes and two interceptions—Allen's odds to win his second NFL MVP award have actually improved, moving from +500 to +260. This counterintuitive shift underscores the respect oddsmakers and analysts have for Allen's overall body of work and the Bills' offensive firepower.

The Unlikely Rise of Brock Purdy

While Allen commands the spotlight, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is quietly mounting a serious challenge. Purdy's odds sit at +425, and he's been nothing short of spectacular. The 49ers are a perfect 3-0, and Purdy boasts a passer rating of 133.1—an off-the-charts figure that has NFL circles buzzing. He's tossed nine touchdown passes on just 83 attempts, with only one interception, while averaging a blistering 9.5 yards per attempt. Add 93 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground, and you have a dual-threat dynamo who is making a compelling case for MVP consideration.

The Chasing Pack: Jackson, Mahomes, and More

Behind Allen and Purdy, the MVP odds reveal a star-studded field. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson sits at +600, while Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is at +800. Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow follows closely at +850, and Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence rounds out the top contenders at +1000. Each of these signal-callers has the talent to surge up the leaderboard, but they'll need consistent excellence to catch the leaders.

Dark Horses and Long Shots

Further down the list, Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, initially off the board after a hamstring injury, is buried at +5500. New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who finished second in MVP voting a year ago, is at +8000. And last year's winner, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, currently has odds of +2800. As highlighted on Vulius, the MVP race is a marathon, not a sprint, and with 14 weeks remaining, the narrative could shift dramatically.

What to Watch in Week 4

As the season progresses, all eyes will be on Allen and Purdy to see if they can maintain their torrid paces. Allen will look to rebound from his interception woes, while Purdy aims to keep his historic efficiency rolling. The chess match between these quarterbacks—and the chasing pack—will define the 2026 NFL season. For die-hard fans, the MVP debate is just heating up, and Vulius will be here to provide in-depth analysis every step of the way.