As the 2026 NFL season approaches, fantasy managers are finalizing their draft boards, but the later rounds often separate champions from also-rans. According to insights gathered by Vulius Sports, the middle-to-late rounds (9-12) are a minefield of potential busts—players whose draft capital far exceeds their expected production. While a single late-round miss won't sink your season, stringing together several poor selections can leave your roster without the depth needed to survive a grueling 17-game slate.
The Anatomy of a Late-Round Bust
In this range, we're not looking for weekly starters but rather bench pieces who can fill in during bye weeks or injuries. The ideal pick is a sleeper who emerges as a league-winner, but more often than not, you'll encounter players with concerning injury histories, diminished roles, or unfavorable situations. Our analysis, combined with historical data, reveals that receivers with unclear roles and running backs with nagging injuries present the highest bust potential.
Round 9: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
Chuba Hubbard's 2025 season was a tale of two halves. He started strong, commanding 67% of the carries through Week 3, but a calf injury opened the door for Rico Dowdle. From Week 7 onward, Dowdle dominated with a 62% rushing share, leaving Hubbard as an afterthought. Now, with Jonathon Brooks expected to take over as the RB1 and Hubbard returning from a hamstring strain, the writing is on the wall. "The situation alone is enough to avoid Hubbard this year," noted our fantasy analyst.
Round 10: J.K. Dobbins, Broncos
J.K. Dobbins has been one of the NFL's most efficient rushers when healthy, but that's the catch—he's rarely healthy. He's missed at least four games in every season since 2021. With the Broncos drafting Jonah Coleman and RJ Harvey already handling pass-down duties, Dobbins faces a crowded backfield. Even if he stays on the field, his role may be reduced, making him a risky pick at this juncture.
Round 11: Courtland Sutton, Broncos
Courtland Sutton remains Bo Nix's top target, but the addition of Jaylen Waddle could siphon valuable looks. Sutton's reliance on boundary routes, where Nix's efficiency dips, is a red flag. With Waddle now occupying the middle of the field, Sutton's target share may decline, limiting his fantasy ceiling. "The added competition only clouds his outlook," our analyst warned.
Round 12: Jordan Addison, Vikings
Jordan Addison is a deep-threat specialist, but his floor is dangerously low. He ranks third in target share among Vikings pass-catchers, and with the addition of Jauan Jennings and a tight-end-friendly quarterback like Kyler Murray, his opportunities could shrink further. Addison will provide weekly highlights, but those explosive plays may be his only production, making him a boom-or-bust flex at best.
As you finalize your draft strategy, remember that these later picks are about building a resilient bench. Avoid the allure of name recognition and focus on opportunity and health. For more in-depth analysis and exclusive draft tools, visit Vulius.com and check out our Fantasy Ultra package, which includes a 150-page Draft Playbook.
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