As the 2026 NFL season approaches, the Detroit Lions find themselves at a crossroads. After a disappointing 9-8 finish last year that saw them tied for last in the NFC North, the franchise is aiming to rebound and reclaim its status as a division powerhouse. With a favorable schedule and a few key additions, there's cautious optimism in Motown. But significant questions remain on both sides of the ball.
A Season of Regression and Injury Woes
The Lions' 2025 campaign was marred by injuries and underperformance. Despite maintaining a top-five offense, they scored 83 fewer points than in their dominant 2024 season. The defense, which ranked seventh in points allowed in 2024, plummeted to 22nd. A six-game stretch late in the season saw them surrender an average of 30 points per game, effectively ending their playoff hopes. Injuries were a primary culprit, with Detroit ranking 31st in adjusted games lost (AGLs), an outlier of bad luck that they hope won't repeat.
Offensively, the line regressed significantly. Departures of Kevin Zeitler and Frank Ragnow, combined with injuries to Taylor Decker, left Jared Goff under constant pressure. Goff, who has the largest performance dropoff when pressured in the league, struggled to maintain consistency. The team also saw offensive coordinator John Morton relieved of play-calling duties mid-season, with head coach Dan Campbell taking over.
Offseason Moves: A Mix of Hope and Concern
The Lions made several roster changes this offseason, but many feel like lateral moves. They hired Drew Petzing as offensive coordinator, hoping his short-passing, play-action scheme will better utilize the team's personnel. However, Petzing's track record in Arizona was modest, and the offense may not see a dramatic improvement.
On the line, the Lions are moving All-Pro Penei Sewell to left tackle, a significant shift. They acquired center Cade Mays, but he'll miss the first half of the season with a wrist injury. Juice Scruggs will start at center in his absence, a downgrade from Frank Ragnow. Rookie Blake Miller is expected to start at right tackle, leaving the line unproven and potentially not much better than last year's unit.
Defensively, the Lions let Marcus Davenport go and signed D.J. Wonnum, a former Viking, to bolster the edge. They're hoping for a bounce-back year from defensive tackle Alim McNeill, who struggled with injuries and posted a career-low PFF grade. The secondary is in flux with Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph starting on the PUP list, and Terrion Arnold was released after an off-field issue.
Injury and Luck Factors: A Path to More Wins?
Using reversion to the mean, the Lions should see improved injury luck this season. However, with key players like Branch, Joseph, and Mays already slated to miss time, the adjustment is limited to one game. Luck factors from last season also suggest the Lions underperformed by about one game, which could swing back in their favor.
The schedule is a major advantage. The Lions have the easiest projected schedule in the league, based on opponent win totals. They face the Cardinals, Titans, and Giants instead of tougher divisional counterparts. With eight games against bottom-half teams, they have a clear path to a winning record.
Prediction: A Return to Contention?
Considering the injury and luck adjustments, plus the easier schedule, the Lions are projected to finish 12-5. That would put them firmly in the NFC North race, potentially challenging for the division crown. However, the roster is top-heavy with massive cap hits for Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Alim McNeill, and Penei Sewell, limiting depth. The offensive line remains a concern, and Goff's performance under pressure could be a deciding factor.
As the season unfolds, all eyes will be on Detroit to see if they can overcome these challenges and return to the playoffs. With a favorable schedule and a bit of luck, the Lions could surprise many in 2026.
Looking to represent Jared Goff? Grab your Jared Goff jersey or design a personalized custom sports jersey at Vulius.
