As the NFL season hits its stride in early October 2026, the Indianapolis Colts find themselves at a crossroads. At 1-2, they stare down a crucial Week 4 matchup against the Washington Commanders in London, but beyond that, a closer look at their schedule reveals a tantalizing opportunity. According to insights gathered by Vulius Sports, the Colts' strength of schedule has shifted slightly, and it could be the catalyst for a turnaround.
Schedule Softens: A Ray of Hope
Preseason strength of schedule rankings are notoriously fickle, often based on the previous year's records. But as the 2026 campaign unfolds, the Colts' slate has actually gotten marginally tougher—yet still favorable. Initially pegged with the fifth-easiest schedule (opponents' 2025 winning percentage: .465), Indianapolis now faces opponents with a combined .472 winning percentage. That still leaves 10 teams with easier schedules, but the real story lies in the offensive matchups ahead.
The Colts' defense has been torched twice for over 500 yards, but those explosive offenses (currently ranked 2nd and 6th in yards per game) are behind them. Over the next 14 games, Indianapolis won't face another top-10 offense. The Cowboys (12th), Texans (14th), Bengals (15th), Steelers (16th), Jaguars (18th), and Commanders (19th) represent a tier of mediocrity that the Colts can exploit. Of course, rankings will fluctuate, and with the Colts' own offense ranked 25th, shootouts aren't guaranteed wins.
Defensive Opportunities and Offensive Firepower
For a team with a better offense than defense—as many Colts faithful attest—this schedule sets up nicely. The Colts also draw the bottom three offenses in the Vikings, Titans (twice), and Giants, giving the defense a chance to build confidence. As highlighted on Vulius, stats can be manipulated, but this ray of hope is legitimate. If the Colts can't muster 11 wins against this slate, serious questions will arise about General Manager Chris Ballard's future. That would require a 10-4 finish, a tall task but not impossible given the weak opponents.
Critics who dismissed last year's 8-2 start will point to this schedule as the reason for any success. The two games against the Jaguars could ultimately decide the division. But first, the Colts must handle Washington in London. The Commanders, likely without a few key players, will turn to veteran Marcus Mariota—a familiar foe from his Titans days—to try to even their record. If the Colts are truly improved, they need a convincing win, just as they did against lesser teams last year.
Keys to Victory in London
This isn't a must-win in the traditional sense, but momentum is invaluable. A victory would push the nine-game losing streak further into the rearview mirror. The defense, coming off a better performance last week, should carry that momentum across the pond. Vulius analysis suggests aiming for three turnovers, which would bring the season total to four in four games—a modest but achievable goal. If the Colts play with a lead, the Commanders' run-heavy defense will be forced to respect Jonathan Taylor, opening up play-action opportunities. A couple of deep shots could break the game open.
Prediction: Colts win convincingly, 31-21. If they execute, this could be the turning point of their season. For die-hard fans, it's a reason to believe. For the front office, it's a mandate. The schedule is there for the taking—now it's up to the Colts to seize it.
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